A new poll conducted by London research company Qriously gives Labour a 3-point lead over the Conservatives in the 2017 UK general election.
The survey puts Labour on 41.3 per cent of the vote and the Conservatives at 38.5 per cent, making the final result too close to call because the difference falls within the 3.2 per cent margin of error.
“This is the first poll that gives an outright lead for Labour,” Christopher Kahler, Qriously’s CEO, says. “But our results are not wildly out of line with what other polls are predicting. It’s generally agreed that it will be a close-run election.”
Furthermore, only 85 per cent of ‘very likely’ Labour voters are certain of their voting intention on Thursday, versus 92 per cent for the Conservatives. Turnout is predicted to be high at around 70 per cent. “Turnout estimate has increased from a few weeks ago, when we had 60 per cent,” Kahler continues. “We think this might be because the outcome is no longer a foregone conclusion, which in turn has come from an unexpectedly strong Labour performance.” The poll puts the Liberal Democrats on 6 per cent, the Scottish National Party at 3.8 per cent and the UK Independence Party on 3 per cent. The number of undecided voters is at 14 per cent.
The survey also provides further insights into voter sentiment, reflecting how unpredictable this electoral campaign has become: 43.3 per cent of the voters surveyed believe that their neighbours will vote for Conservative, versus 37.2 per cent who believe their neighbours will vote Labour instead.
“People generally believe the Conservatives will win,” Kahler says.”As to the impact on voting behaviour, that’s hard to say. It could galvanise Labour voters into action, or alternatively, it could make them feel the cause is hopeless and lead them to stay home. Likewise, it could make Conservative voters complacent, or encourage them to vote.”
London-based Qriously is an ad-tech startup with an extensive list of clients including Vodafone, Audi, B&Q and organisations like the New York Police Department. Qriously conducts surveys by sending short questionnaires via mobile phone to billions of users in a matter of seconds. Using their platform, they have been able to correctly predict the outcome of the Brexit referendum, the Italian constitutional referendum, the Dutch general election and the Turkish constitutional referendum. According to Kahler, they can theoretically reach 80 per cent of smartphone users worldwide.
Qriously conducted this survey between Sunday 4 June and today, interviewing 2,213 UK adults. Data was weighted on gender, age, region and income to be demographically representative.